NFL Against the Spread: Week 11

drew brees new orleans saints

New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (3-6)

Thursday 8:30 pm ET, NFL Network

Spread: Panthers -3.5

Drew Brees looks like Drew Brees again and he’s loving his new weapon, rookie wide receiver Michael Thomas. The former Ohio State star has quickly developed into the Saints best wide receiver showing easy chemistry with Brees.  The Saints have too many weapons for the Panthers to cover through the air, and meanwhile the New Orleans ground game has been effective with Tim Hightower and Mark Engram sharing the load.  The Panthers still miss Josh Norman in their secondary after letting him walk in the offseason, and Brees will reap the benefits.

On the other side of the ball, Cam Newton still doesn’t look right, and neither does this spread which suggests Carolina would still be favored on a neutral site.  This spread should be more like -2.5 if not lower.  The Saints are coming off of a crushing defeat with an extra point blocked and returned for a game winning two points for Denver and are going to be hungry to get back on the winning track.  Before that soul-crushing loss the Saints had won four of their last five games including wins over Seattle, Carolina and at San Diego.  The Saints are the better team and this spread suggests otherwise.

Bottom Line: Grab Saints +3.5 while you still can at Bovada.


Carson Wentz Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) at Seattle Seahawks (6-2-1)

Sunday 4:25 pm ET, CBS

Spread: Seahawks -6.5

The NFL fans and media alike love to overreact to each week and the Seahawks are the best current example.  After a shaky Monday Night game against Buffalo that was marred by terrible officiating and a porous Seahawks defense, everyone expected the Seahawks to bow down to the Patriots and were seven point underdogs heading into the Sunday Night matchup.  After a thrilling win over the Patriots, now all of a sudden the Seahawks are world beaters again.  This game is at Seattle, but even so the extra home field advantage and the disparity between the Seahawks and Eagles doesn’t add up to a 6.5 point line.  At most this should be at -4.5 or -5.

Bottom Line: A rookie QB starting at Seattle is a little scary to bet on, but 6.5 points is just too much.


aaron rodgers eats grass

Green Bay Packers (4-5) at Washington Redskins (5-3-1)

Sunday 8:30 pm ET, NBC

Spread: Redskins -3

After getting embarrassed at Tennessee, Green Bay limps into DC having lost three in a row and four of their last five (their only win coming against the lowly Matt Barkley led Chicago Bears).  However, despite showing no ability to slow teams down on defense, and with an offense not operating the way fans are used to, the Packers are still being treated as equals to a Washington team that has one loss in its past seven games.

Bottom Line: I’ll gladly take Washington minus the standard three points at home, and with even money at that.  Lock in that even money while you can.

Categories: NFL

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